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The economic growth will reach only 1.9% this year after a marked slowdown in H2 caused by a mix of internal and external drivers, compared to initial expectations for a 3% GDP advance. However, growth will strengthen in 2024 towards 2.7%, driven by private consumption, public demand and certain improvement in external demand, according to Mihaly Kovacs, Economic Advisor, OTP Bank's Research Centre.
"Expectations should be reserved for the end of this year as spending will be constrained by the fact that credit growth has also continued to weaken, even though credit generation has returned to previous trends for the corporate segment and consumer credits," the OTP Bank analyst commented, Bursa.ro reported.
The inflation pattern is expected to parallel the economic growth (this demand) dynamics: slower towards the end of the year, followed by certain resumption expected for 2024.
"At the moment, inflation is still falling, but January will bring a temporary reversal of the disinflationary trend due to the fiscal measures implemented for fiscal consolidation. The effect of higher oil prices will also contribute to stopping disinflation in the first quarter of next year. Our forecast shows that inflation in prices of services and goods will remain relatively inflexible, while inflation in food prices will continue to decline," OTP analysts say.
(Photo source: OTP Bank Romania)
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