Geoană Leads, Ciolacu Gains, and Șoșoacă Surprises: Insights from the INSCOP Poll

In a recent poll conducted by INSCOP for News.ro, Mircea Geoană, the Deputy Secretary-General of NATO, remains the frontrunner in voter intentions for the upcoming presidential elections, securing 26.2% of support. Following closely is Marcel Ciolacu, with Diana Șoșoacă making significant gains and surpassing George Simion, according to the survey commissioned by News.ro.

If Geoană decides not to run, Ciolacu takes the lead with 27.4% of votes, followed by Șoșoacă, Simion, and Nicolae Ciucă.

Analysing Voter Intentions and Trends Ahead of the Romanian Presidential Elections

The survey highlights a competition between Diana Șoșoacă and George Simion for the same voter segment, indicating that an increase in support for one corresponds to a decrease for the other, as noted by Remus Ștefureac, the director of INSCOP Research.

Șoșoacă’s voter intentions have increased by 4.3% since September, surpassing Simion, who has seen a 4.7% decrease in support.

The estimated voter turnout shows that 57.6% of respondents are highly likely to participate in the presidential elections, with only 0.7% choosing not to respond.

Understanding the Impact of Candidate Choices on Voter Behavior

In the first scenario, where potential candidates included Mircea Geoană, Marcel Ciolacu, Diana Șoșoacă, George Simion, Nicolae Ciucă, Cătălin Drulă, Dacian Ciolos, and Kelemen Hunor, Geoană maintains a slight lead with 26.2% support.

In the second scenario, excluding Geoană, Ciolacu takes the lead with 27.4%, followed by Șoșoacă and Simion.

Comparing data from September, there are slight increases in voter intentions for Geoană, Ciolacu, and Ciucă. However, Diana Șoșoacă has experienced a more significant rise, correlating with a decline in support for George Simion.

The INSCOP Research director, Remus Ștefureac, emphasized that as the presidential elections approach and the number of potential candidates increases, the list of tested individuals will correspondingly change.

The poll, conducted via CATI (Computer-Assisted Telephone Interviews), gathered data from 1,100 respondents between November 20 and 27, ensuring representation across key socio-demographic categories. The margin of error is ±2.95% with a confidence level of 95%.

Source: HotNews.ro

Editor: Andreea Gudin